Expectations for RB Ryan Grant - Green Bay

I like Ryan Grant as a mid RB2 option in a 12 team league for the 2009 season. In early projections I have him ranked as the #16 RB overall, although in a ppr league he could be dropped a couple of notches. I expect him to be the workhorse for the Packers as in 2008 he still had about 75% of the team's carries and essentially Brandon Jackson is the same type of RB that Grant is and should only take away some 3rd down touches. Last season, Grant had nearly 300 carries and 1200 yards which landed him around the #20 RB overall. That still put him as a low RB2 option a year ago, so had he just gotten a couple more TDs he would have finished within the top 15.

I believe two big factors lead to Grant having a less productive 2008 then what was expected of him in 2007. One, he missed most of training camp with a contract dispute leaving him behind the eight ball to start the season meaning he did not get into the groove until at least four weeks into the regular season. Second, the Pack D gave up a ton of points last season which meant the offense led by Aaron Rodgers had to throw the ball a ton to stay in or win games. In 2009, that should not be the case as the Pack D will be much improved allowing the Packers to play a more with the lead and run a more ball controlled offense. It should too get Grant a few more short yardage receptions which would be in line with his breakout 2007 campaign when he had 30 in just a handful of games.

Draft Grant as your RB2 after around 15 RBs are gone come draft day and expect mid range RB2 numbers with more upside than downside in my opinion.

Dallas RB Situation

I think it will be a RBBC situation, but more of a 65-35 type thing with Barber and Jones. I feel Choice will more figure in should injuries occur, he might take a portion of the looks from the other two, but I can't see it being more than 5-10%, so he is more draftable in dynasty leagues should Barber not be resigned or traded, but not real viable at this point in a redraft unless you are looking to handcuff one of the two main backs. But should you be holding Choice in a dynasty league, you will have to hope Barber or Jones is traded or not resigned, which is why I figure Choice might end up being a Michael Turner type(not necessariily a comparision of the two backs, but the situation is similar) who plays backup for a few seasons and then finally gets his chance to start somewhere.

Barber should be ranked outside of the top 10 RBs, but within the top 15 or so. This will be his fifith season in the league and he still has not acheived a 1000 rushing season. But, he is still very young and is a solid receiver out of the backfield so opportunities will be there. I would anticipate 17-20 touches a game for him with goal line looks to boot. He should be closer to his 2007 numbers than his 2008 ones. I look for him to get about 220 carries and 45 or receptions, that would be a total of about 265 touches on the season. I would say a productive RB2 option.

Jones should be ranked somewhere around the 32nd -40th RB overall in most early rankings. He is coming off a season ending injury and should be healthy. He was great to start last year, and shows home run ability, but considering his split on the looks, I see him as a mid RB3 or possible flex option, although you might be better served plugging a starting WR into that flex spot because you are counting on Jones hitting a home run play most weeks with Barber getting the goal line carries. Should Barber go out, which his bruising running style suggests is possible, Jones would be a huge asset to have for any fantasy team. Dynasty wise, Jones is a nice player to have with solid upside, but as long as Barber and even Choice are in Big D, you will have to count on the big play to getting weekly scoring from Jones. I see him in 2009 getting about 125 touches or so, with 100-110 carries and 20 or so receptions.

Is the West the best?

I was able to catch a bit of both top level NBA games on Sunday. The Spurs/Celtics and the Lakers/Cavs. The assumption that the West is the better conference top to bottom is once again evident this season as many East teams hold playoff spots right now with losing records. But if you start at the top of both conferences you see teams that could make deep playoffs runs and the difference between those teams are not far off.

So the West won the battle on Sunday with both Western road teams winning, but each of the East teams had significant leads at halftime or into the 4th quarter. I believe that were these teams to meet in the NBA Finals(any grouping of the four that played yesterday) we would see some great basketball and possibly game 7s.

All in all, I am not reading too much into who won and lost these games, I am reading more into what it appears these teams need to do to win. For the Spurs, they need their big guns Duncan, Parker, Ginobili to play well, but that is a given. But should a guy like Roger Mason Jr., hit big shots a la Robert Horry and they play the classic Spurs D, they will be a tough out. For the Lakers, the Bynum injury is the wild card here. Lamar Odom's performance on Sunday was off the charts and any assemblance of that type of play from him to go with Bryant and Gasol will help the loss of Bynum. For the Celtics, after winning a title last year, I think they feel they can coast a bit into the playoffs. They know they need home court so they come to play every night, but I would expect more contributions from bench players as the regular season wears on to get ready for playoff basketball. For the Cavs, they need Lebron to play at his usual insane level. The Cavs do not have the star power to keep up with the other teams mentioned, but they have proven that their supporting cast can come through and do all the little things while Lebron leads the way.

Sure a team like Orlando in the East will contend, but their reliance on 3s the Nelson's injury are two big obstacles to overcome the Celts and Cavs. In the West, Houston, Utah, New Orleans, Denver, and others can compete with the Spurs and Lakers, but more than likely not enough to pull the upset.

So Sunday was another chapter in the debate is the West better than the East. Throw out all the pretenders, we really only care about the contenders, and considering the contenders we watched on Sunday, the balance at the top is very even.

Super Bowl 43, pardon me Holmes?

So it looked like that 27-14 score I had predicted might just come through as the Cards never could get the run game going. But wow were they able to get some big plays from their wideouts and for the most part protect Warner, which was key. With a 20-7 lead entering the 4th quarter, it was shown by NBC that the Steelers were 10-0 all time in the playoffs with an 11 or more point lead entering the 4th. Amazing that they were 142-1-1 all time entering with that same lead in the regular season. So just when you thought it was over and hopefully you stuck around to watch it, the Cards made great play after great play offensively to get right back into the game. Then Warner hit Fitz for that long TD, (btw did we know Fitz was this fast?) and the Cards are looking to make history with a 23-20 lead.

But the Steelers found a way as championship teams do to make a comeback drive and win the game 27-23. Not lost in this was the once again spectacular game and final drive put together by Santonio Holmes. He finished with 9 grabs for 131 and the final TD and then the MVP trophy to boot. I tend to look at most football these days from a fantasy perspective, don't get me wrong I am a die hard NFL fan overall, but for me and I would think many of you, I tend to put a fantasy football twist on things.

Holmes was great throughout the playoffs. He basically became the go to guy over Hines Ward(not that Ward still can't be that guy) and going all the way back to that controversial TD against the Ravens in the regular season, Holmes came through when needed. So after the great endzone catch to ensure the Steelers their 6th Super Bowl title I wondered what Holmes's postseason will mean for his fantasy value.

I believe he has now proven to be much more than a long ball type WR. Sure he has great speed and will always be a deep threat, but his most memorable catches of 2008 and the Super Bowl were not bombs thrown by Big Ben, they were intermediate type routes where Holmes simply just made the plays. Big Ben will not put up the numbers of a Brees, Brady or Peyton Manning each year mainly because that is not what is asked of him and the Steelers are a great example of a true team, but Holmes will benefit regardless as he and Big Ben continue to grow together. Plus it is now obvious the Steelers coaches and players have confidence in him to carry on from here as the Steelers #1 WR threat, all the while having a great vet on the other side in Ward.

So at this point, if you own Holmes in a dynasty or keeper league his value has shot up and you could not be happier. This offseason might be the time to deal for him if the other owner thinks Holmes late season play was a fluke, but that is unlikely. I can see Holmes now being drafted this fall in redraft leagues within the top 10 WRs overall. That is a big jump considering in most formats he was a solid #2 or tremendous #3 WR on any fantasy team. Being drafted in the top 10 means he will be somebody's #1 WR on their team for 2009 and I think it will be well deserved.

Expectations for Super Sunday

So we embark on Super Bowl 43 this coming Sunday, with a matchup of a team who has been there many times before and a team that is making their first trip. Its hard to argue that the Steelers are one of the NFL's most storied franchises, while its equally hard to argue that the Cardinals have been one of the NFL's worst. So since I am not a true follower of either team, I think this matchup is pretty compelling considering the background of both franchises. Even more so, if the Cardinals can get it together and make a run to the Super Bowl, then too could my Detroit Lions, right? (Insert foot in mouth!)

Putting all the past behind, what do I expect from this Super Bowl? The Cards have shown the ability in these playoffs to run the ball relatively effectively and also stop the opponents from having success running the football. This to me first and foremost, has led to their solid playoff run, and well Larry Fitzgerald's performances have been pretty good as well. But with the threat of a run game, the Cards have been able to open up intermediate and deep passing routes for their WRs, this has allowed them to make big plays and control the clock, keeping the offenses of their opponents on the sidelines.

So the question then is, can the Cards follow this pattern to be successful against the Steelers? My answer to that is no. I believe the Cards will have no luck running the ball what so ever, thus they will have to throw the ball 30+ times. To me that will lead to a couple of INTs for the Steelers defense, plus leave Warner suseptible to getting hurried and sacked, and possibly causing a fumble or two. Pittsburgh is more physical than any team the Cards have played, and I believe the Steelers will have plenty of luck running the ball, thus controlling the clock and wearing down the Cardinals defense.

We have seen big favorites get upset recently like the Rams losing to the Patriots, or the Patriots getting beat last year by the Giants, but I do not see that happening this season. I expect the Steelers to control the clock by running the ball well, Big Ben to not turn the ball over, the Steelers D to probably get a TD, and finally the Steelers to win this game 27-14.

Greinke signs 4 year extension

Today the Royals made the best move of the offseason, signing Zack Greinke to a four year, $38million contract. In doing so, not only did the Royals lock up their ace pitcher, they also proved to the fans that KC is no longer trying to get by on a shoestring budget.

Of course, this signing will probably come with those who will put a negative spin on it. “He’s got psychological issues,” they’ll say. “What if he freaks out and walks off the team again?” they’ll ask.

Well…I’m not usually one for a big gamble when it comes to the Royals, as a small market team, they can’t afford to sit at the poker table and lose. However, this is a gamble I’ll take all day long. Greinke is now a couple of full seasons removed from his meltdown, and over that span, he’s started pitching like the ace we thought we drafted.

After a horrible 2005 season, which couldn’t have helped his state of mind, Greinke spent most of 2006 (when he decided he did in fact want to pitch) in the minors, logging about seven big league innings. Then, in 2007, he started out in the bullpen, as the Royals brought him back slowly, and then worked his way back into the rotation. He finished the year with 122 IP (only 14 starts) an ERA of 3.69, and a WHIP of 1.29. Then, in 2008, he proved he was all the way back, breaking camp as a part of the rotation and going on to be one of the best pitchers in the American League. Greinke posted a 13-10 record, logged just over 200 IP, had a 3.47 ERA and a 1.275 WHIP. He also struck out 183 while only walking 56 batters.

I’m going to guess this gamble will pay off…that we just locked up a young number one starting pitcher who has grown comfortable in his skin, is enjoying his success, and is ready to make his mark on the world of baseball. Greinke and Meche give the Royals a nasy 1-2 punch for the second straight year, and hopefully, these two pitchers will continue to lead the Royals back to respectibility.

Many teams looking for OL and DL help

It becomes more clear each season in the 21st century NFL that in order to be successful you must win the battles up front. Teams making a run to and deep into the playoffs most normally display the ability to run the ball and stop the run on defense.

So as the 2009 NFL draft draws nearer, teams must decide what they need going into the late April that will help them be succesful come the end of 2009.

If you read or hear the opinions of many people, experts or not, you will for the most part see agreement on the top 3 area of need for each NFL franchise heading into the 2009 Draft. There will be some slight differences, but you will see one very common thread. Many teams are looking for OL and DL help. In fact, I see 23-25 or the 32 NFL teams that list OL or DL as a top 3area of need, and this upcoming draft in my opinion is a deep one at both those positions.

So more than it was then I can remember in the 80s or 90s, in the past decade we have seen many more OL and DL talents going early in NFL drafts and making significant impacts on the NFL landscape. If you are looking for the 2009 draft to be one dominated by skill position players you will be sorely disappointed. Now the flux of talent in the "big hog" positions might mean some great skill position talent falls in the draft and certain teams will benefit greatly from this. But I fully expect, especially in the 1st and 2nd rounds, we will not see the majority of players taken being the TD scorers, instead we will be seeing the players taken that win games in the trenches.